Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Stock Outlook: 3 Key Factors to Watch Beyond 2-Quarter Earnings
As of 2026-08-18, both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reported record-level earnings for the 2 quarter, and both companies have presented strong outlooks for memory demand in the second half of the year. However, their share prices have fluctuated so sharply recently that earnings alone cannot fully explain the movements. At this point, it makes more sense to examine whether demand for HBM and server memory is translating into actual shipments, whether supply shortages are persisting, and how concrete shareholder return plans are becoming.
There is insufficient evidence to conclude that either Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix will necessarily outperform the other. The key distinction currently visible is that Samsung Electronics must be evaluated based on both the earnings expansion of its memory business, including HBM, and its broader business portfolio. In contrast, SK Hynix is showing a more direct contribution to earnings from high-value-added memory products for AI servers.
How Much Did Samsung Electronics' and SK Hynix's 2-Quarter Earnings Improve?
Both companies recorded substantial increases in revenue and operating profit in the 2 quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter. SK Hynix stood out particularly for its revenue growth rate, while Samsung Electronics showed a notable increase in profit, led by its Device Solutions (DS) division.
Samsung Electronics' consolidated revenue for the 2 quarter of 2026 was 171 trillion 5 billion won, while operating profit reached 89 trillion 5 billion won. Compared with revenue of 133 trillion 9 billion won and operating profit of 57 trillion 2 billion won in the 1 quarter, revenue increased by approximately 28.1% and operating profit by approximately 56.5%.
Author's Calculations
Revenue growth rate: `(KRW 171,500,000,000,000.0-KRW 133,900,000,000,000.0) ÷ KRW 133,900,000,000,000.0 × 100 = approximately 28.1%`
Operating profit growth rate: `(KRW 89,500,000,000,000.0-KRW 57,200,000,000,000.0) ÷ KRW 57,200,000,000,000.0 × 100 = approximately 56.5%`
Samsung Electronics also stated in its official announcement that 2-quarter revenue increased by 28% from the previous quarter. The DS division, which oversees semiconductors, recorded revenue of 127 trillion 5 billion won and operating profit of 89 trillion 2 billion won in the 2 quarter. Its memory business achieved record quarterly highs in both revenue and operating profit.
SK Hynix recorded 2-quarter revenue of KRW 79,318,700,000,000 and operating profit of KRW 60,542,600,000,000. Based on 1-quarter revenue of KRW 52,576,300,000,000 and operating profit of KRW 37,610,300,000,000, revenue increased by approximately 50.9% and operating profit by approximately 61.0%.
Author's Calculations
Revenue growth rate: `(KRW 79,318,700,000,000.0000-KRW 52,576,300,000,000.0000) ÷ KRW 52,576,300,000,000.0000 × 100 = approximately 50.9%`
Operating profit growth rate: `(KRW 60,542,600,000,000.0000-KRW 37,610,300,000,000.0000) ÷ KRW 37,610,300,000,000.0000 × 100 = approximately 61.0%`
Looking only at these figures, SK Hynix is growing faster on a quarter-over-quarter basis. However, these calculations do not represent stock price appreciation or future investment returns. Share prices are influenced by expectations already priced into the market, future earnings forecasts, and capital flows.
Why Share Prices Have Been Volatile Despite Strong Earnings
During 2026, both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix experienced significant share price volatility even as their earnings improved. According to one analysis, as of August 6, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics shares had retreated by approximately 48% and 37%, respectively, from highs recorded on June.
Analysts suggested that during the sharp selloff in late July and the rebound in early August, share prices were influenced not only by corporate earnings but also by single-stock leveraged products and position reductions. Another estimate indicated that assets in leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix declined from approximately USD 50,000,000,000 in late June to approximately USD 17,000,000,000 in early August.
Therefore, a substantial decline from recent highs does not automatically mean the stocks are undervalued. Likewise, strong 2-quarter earnings do not necessarily imply that their previous highs will be recovered.
What matters now is not whether share prices have rebounded for several days, but whether the gap between companies' reported earnings trends and the market's elevated expectations is narrowing.
Samsung Electronics Stock Outlook: Why Server Memory Matters Alongside HBM
Samsung Electronics said its memory business expanded HBM4 sales during the 2 quarter and supplied HBM4E samples to major customers. The company expects strong server-centered demand to continue in the second half of 2026, supported by investment in AI infrastructure. It also anticipates accelerating demand growth for server DRAM, enterprise SSDs, and HBM. Samsung Electronics' official outlook indicates that supply constraints will persist despite efforts to expand supply.
This matters because Samsung Electronics' semiconductor performance cannot be evaluated solely through one product, HBM.
In the 2 quarter, Samsung Electronics' memory business also benefited from increased server product sales and higher memory prices. When evaluating subsequent earnings, investors should therefore look beyond individual HBM-related developments and examine whether revenue and profitability across the entire memory business, including server DRAM and enterprise SSDs, remain sustainable.
Conversely, the company expects some slowdown in smartphone and PC memory demand during the second half. Strong server demand should not be taken to mean that consumer memory demand will grow at the same pace.
The most important question for Samsung Electronics is whether the expansion in memory profits reflects only a temporary increase in prices or can continue into the next quarter alongside rising server memory and HBM shipments.
SK Hynix Stock Outlook: HBM4 and Long-Term Supply Contracts Must Be Evaluated Together
SK Hynix stated that its 2-quarter earnings improvement was driven not only by HBM but also by increased sales of high-value-added products, including DRAM for AI servers and enterprise SSDs. The company explained that demand is expanding for conventional memory as well as AI memory.
One factor distinguishing SK Hynix from Samsung Electronics is its long-term supply relationships.
The company said it had signed long-term contracts with approximately 10 customers and was holding additional discussions with other major customers. HBM4 met the operating speeds required by customers, and the company is managing production and contracts to improve long-term supply stability.
At the end of the 2 quarter, cash and cash equivalents stood at KRW 88,000,000,000,000, an increase of 33 trillion 6 billion won from the previous quarter. Total borrowings declined by 7 billion won to 18 trillion 6 billion won. Net cash increased to 69 trillion 4 billion won.
These figures indicate that SK Hynix's recent profit growth is not confined to its income statement but is also being reflected in its cash flow and financial structure.
Nevertheless, a high earnings growth rate should not be directly converted into an assumed future stock price growth rate. When earnings expectations are already elevated, a stock can move in the opposite direction even after reporting strong results if those results fail to meet market expectations.
Shareholder Returns Should Also Be Compared Using Actual Figures
Samsung Electronics currently operates a shareholder return policy under which 50% of free cash flow generated during 2024–2026 is allocated to shareholder returns. Free cash flow refers to cash remaining after expenditures required for operations and investment. Its regular annual dividend amounts to approximately 9 trillion 8 billion won, while the dividend per share for both common and preferred shares in the 2 quarter of 2026 was KRW 374.
SK Hynix's shareholder return policy for 2025–2027 also includes a principle of allocating half of cumulative free cash flow to shareholder returns. The company raised its annual fixed dividend from KRW 1,200 per share to KRW 1,500 per share.
As both companies generate more cash, shareholder returns have become increasingly important in assessing their stocks. In early August, both companies indicated that they were considering additional shareholder return measures. However, it is safer to wait for confirmed official announcements before evaluating the specific scale and structure of any additional returns.
Simply comparing dividend payments is not enough to determine which stock offers a greater advantage. The companies differ in share prices, numbers of outstanding shares, treasury share policies, free cash flow, and future investment requirements.
What Should Investors Check First When Comparing Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix?
When comparing the two stocks, a practical approach is to prioritize financial and operational indicators that can be sustained into the next quarter rather than focusing on a single target price.
For Samsung Electronics, the key factors are DS division operating profit, expansion of HBM4 sales, demand for server DRAM and enterprise SSDs, and whether memory supply constraints persist. All four factors are linked to the memory business in the company's current outlook for the second half.
For SK Hynix, it is useful to examine HBM4 shipments, AI server memory sales, expansion of long-term contracts, and the balance between growing cash reserves and investment spending. In the 2-quarter results, these factors were reflected simultaneously in revenue growth and improvements in the company's financial structure.
Share prices themselves remain highly sensitive to capital flows and market risk appetite, in addition to corporate earnings. Particularly during periods when changes in leveraged product positions amplify market volatility, as they have recently, it is difficult to determine the medium-term direction based solely on gains over a day or a week.
If You Are Considering Buying Now, Establishing an Evaluation Sequence Is Better Than Focusing on Price
Based solely on Samsung Electronics' and SK Hynix's 2-quarter results for 2026, the memory market and AI server demand remain strong. Both companies' official business outlooks for the second half also indicate continued demand for server and AI memory products.
However, this does not guarantee that their share prices will rise from any particular price level.
If you are considering a purchase, a useful approach is to check the following in order: first, whether operating profit is maintained in the next earnings report; second, whether increased shipments of HBM and server memory are confirmed; third, whether projected supply shortages translate into actual selling prices and profitability; and fourth, whether additional shareholder returns are officially announced with specific figures.
Existing shareholders should also reassess whether the earnings assumptions underlying their original investment remain valid, rather than calculating only the price needed to break even based on recent highs or sharp selloff levels.
Both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are sensitive to the semiconductor business cycle and the AI investment cycle, and both have recently experienced substantial share price fluctuations. Publicly disclosed earnings and company forecasts are information for investment decisions, not guarantees of future returns. Using leveraged products can also result in loss fluctuations greater than those of the underlying stocks themselves.
※ This article is provided for informational purposes to help readers understand market trends and does not constitute an investment recommendation for any particular stock or asset. Final investment decisions and responsibility rest with the individual investor.