Is a Bitcoin Bull Run Coming? Three Signals to Watch After Reclaiming 8 Ten-Thousand Dollars
이 포스팅은 쿠팡 파트너스 활동의 일환으로, 이에 따른 일정액의 수수료를 제공받습니다.
As of the morning of 2026-09-19, Bitcoin had climbed back above 8 ten-thousand dollars, but this rebound alone is not enough to confirm a new bull market. In the U.S. market on September 18, Bitcoin rose to 8 ten-thousand 587 dollars, gaining more than 5% compared with 4 p.m. the previous day. However, with the U.S. raising interest rates and spot Bitcoin ETFs recently experiencing substantial outflows, investors now need to look beyond a single day's gains and monitor whether Bitcoin can hold above 8 ten-thousand dollars and whether ETF fund flows remain consistent.
Why Is It Still Too Early to Declare a Bull Market After Bitcoin Reclaimed 8 Ten-Thousand Dollars?
Bitcoin's short-term market sentiment has clearly improved. In the U.S. market on September 18, Bitcoin climbed to 8 ten-thousand 587 dollars, rising more than 5% from the previous day.
Looking at a longer period, the rebound has also been substantial. Bitcoin fell to approximately 6 ten-thousand dollars in late August before recovering to 7 ten-thousand dollars. It then climbed back above 8 ten-thousand dollars during September.
Using approximately 6 ten-thousand dollars as a simple reference point, the rise to 8 ten-thousand 587 dollars represents an increase of approximately 34%. This is the author's calculation based on 6 ten-thousand dollars, not an exact return measured from the market bottom.
The calculation is `(80,587-60,000)÷60,000×100`.
The problem is that this is not the first time Bitcoin has broken above 8 ten-thousand dollars. On September 3, Bitcoin also climbed to around 8 ten-thousand 2 thousand dollars before retreating again. This time, therefore, the more important indicator is whether Bitcoin can sustain its price after the rally rather than merely crossing 8 ten-thousand dollars briefly.
Has Money Started Flowing Back Into Spot ETFs?
Fund flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have not yet established a consistent direction. In mid-September, substantial net outflows were followed by a return to net inflows.
On September 14, net inflows reached 1 hundred-million 5,990 ten-thousand dollars, but 4 hundred-million 5,040 ten-thousand dollars flowed out on 15. Net outflows of 2 hundred-million 9,590 ten-thousand dollars continued on 16, before flows reversed again to net inflows of 1 hundred-million 5,950 ten-thousand dollars on 17.
Across the four trading days from September 14 through 17, the combined result was approximately 4 hundred-million 2,590 ten-thousand dollars in net outflows. According to the author's calculation, `+159.9-450.4-295.9+159.5=-426.9`, with figures expressed in millions of dollars.
In other words, the pattern remains too inconsistent to conclude that institutional money has fully returned based on a single day of net inflows.
By contrast, approximately 7 hundred-million 3,080 ten-thousand dollars flowed into spot ETFs in just one day on September 3. For ETF flows to genuinely support a sustained upward trend, investors need to monitor whether net inflows continue over several trading days rather than focusing on a one-day reversal.
Why Did Bitcoin Reclaim 8 Ten-Thousand Dollars Even After the U.S. Raised Interest Rates?
On September 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25% points to 3.75–4.00%. The Federal Open Market Committee vote was 12 to 0.
In the same announcement, the Fed stated that inflation remained elevated.
The fact that Bitcoin did not collapse immediately after the rate increase and instead climbed back above 8 ten-thousand dollars on September 18 is a noteworthy development in the current market. However, this price movement alone does not mean that higher interest rates will no longer affect Bitcoin.
Instead, investors should continue monitoring future U.S. interest rate decisions, inflation conditions, and Treasury yield movements alongside Bitcoin prices.
What Has Actually Changed on the Regulatory Front?
On September 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced temporary, conditional exemptive relief related to trading tokenized U.S.-listed equities.
The measure allows qualifying Tokenized Securities Venues to trade tokenized NMS stocks using permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools. Restrictions also apply to the number of eligible securities and trading volumes, among other conditions.
This policy does not guarantee Bitcoin's price performance, nor does it constitute a new approval announcement for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Regulatory developments should therefore not automatically be interpreted as confirmation that Bitcoin prices will rise.
Which Numbers Should Investors Watch First During This Rebound?
Rather than setting a single price target, it is more useful to monitor three sets of actual market data over time.
First, watch whether Bitcoin can maintain its price above 8 ten-thousand dollars. Bitcoin already crossed that level in early September before falling back, so its ability to hold the level matters more than the breakout itself.
Second, monitor whether net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue. On September 15 and 16, combined net outflows reached 7 hundred-million 4,630 ten-thousand dollars, while 1 hundred-million 5,950 ten-thousand dollars flowed back in on 17. That one-day reversal was not enough to offset the outflows recorded over the previous two days.
Third, watch U.S. monetary policy. Because an actual rate increase took place on September 16, upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and inflation trends remain important variables to monitor.
None of these three conditions alone can confirm that Bitcoin has entered a bull market. Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset, and investors should not assume that recent short-term price gains will translate into future returns.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy Bitcoin?
The currently available data suggest that this is a period for testing the strength of the rebound, rather than one in which a new bull market can be declared with certainty.
Bitcoin's recovery from approximately 6 ten-thousand dollars in late August to the 8 ten-thousand-dollar range is significant. However, Bitcoin also rose above 8 ten-thousand dollars in early September before declining again. Spot ETF flows have likewise shifted rapidly between net outflows and net inflows recently.
Rather than basing a new purchase solely on expectations that a bull market is coming, investors should first determine how much loss they can afford and how long they intend to invest. Using leverage can substantially increase the risk of losses compared with holding Bitcoin directly.
Whether this rebound develops into a longer-term uptrend will ultimately depend on how Bitcoin's ability to hold the 8 ten-thousand-dollar range, sustained net inflows into ETFs, and changes in U.S. monetary policy unfold in the actual data.
※ This article is provided for informational purposes to help readers understand market trends and does not constitute an investment recommendation for any particular security or asset. All investment decisions and responsibilities rest with the individual investor.
Related Articles
Bitcoin and the FOMC September 16 Rate Decision: Three Key Variables BTC Investors Should Watch
이 포스팅은 쿠팡 파트너스 활동의 일환으로, 이에 따른 일정액의 수수료를 제공받습니다.