Bitcoin Breaks Above USD 80,000: Why Analysts See More Upside Than Gold, Based on the 200-Day Moving Average and Momentum
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After Bitcoin climbed back above USD 80,000, a technical analysis suggested that it could have greater upside potential than gold. As of 2026-08-26 Korea time, Bitcoin was trading around USD 79,000 again, meaning its breakout above USD 80,000 has not yet been firmly established. The key point of this outlook is not a guarantee that Bitcoin will outperform gold, but rather that the two assets differ in the duration of their declines, their bottoming processes, their 200-day moving averages, and whether they are overbought.
What Does the Analysis Suggesting Bitcoin Could Outperform Gold Actually Mean?
This outlook is a technical assessment by Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies, who compared the charts of Bitcoin and gold. Stockton believes that Bitcoin has not yet entered overbought territory despite its recent rebound, leaving room for its upward trend to continue longer than gold's.
There is an important distinction to make here. Saying that Bitcoin has greater upside potential than gold does not mean a specific Bitcoin price target has been established. Stockton's assessment compares the technical structures of the two assets. It is different from a forecast claiming that Bitcoin will reach a particular dollar price by a specific date.
Bitcoin spent a relatively long period in a bearish trend, allowing more time for a bottom to form. During its subsequent rebound, the 200-day moving average, a widely used indicator of long-term trends, served as an important resistance level. Recently, attention has shifted to Bitcoin's ability to break above that resistance and continue advancing.
The 200-day moving average is an indicator that tracks the average price over approximately the most recent 200 trading days. A move above this line does not automatically confirm further gains. However, whether a price that has remained depressed for an extended period can reclaim its long-term average and stay above it is frequently used to assess the direction of a trend.
What matters most in Stockton's analysis is not simply that Bitcoin crossed a particular line, but that its price did not immediately retreat after clearing resistance and instead showed follow-through gains.
How Much Has Bitcoin Actually Risen?
On 2026-08-25, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of USD 81,237.94, its highest level in approximately 3 months. During Asian trading hours, it traded around USD 80,323.24, while its gains since August reached 28%.
However, the situation changed somewhat the following day, August 26. Bitcoin's price in global markets was recorded at approximately USD 79,025.16. In other words, briefly exceeding USD 80,000 does not necessarily mean that this price level has already become firmly established support.
This distinction matters.
Comparing the intraday high of USD 81,237.94 on August 25 with the confirmed price of USD 79,025.16 on August 26 shows a decline of USD 2,212.78.
Author's calculation
USD 81,237.94 - USD 79,025.16 = USD 2,212.78
That puts the price approximately 2.7% below its peak.
2,212.78 ÷ 81,237.94 × 100 ≈ 2.7%
Therefore, rather than focusing only on the statement that Bitcoin 'broke above USD 80,000,' it is more useful to examine how long the price can hold near USD 80,000 and whether renewed buying follows another breakout.
Why Are Analysts Assessing the Charts of Gold and Bitcoin Differently?
Gold is not showing weakness either. On August 26, spot gold was trading at USD 4,632.65 per ounce, remaining near its highest level in 3 months. Bitcoin and gold therefore share one important characteristic: both have strengthened at the same time.
The difference lies in what happened before their recent advances.
Stockton believes gold's intermediate-term downtrend began later than Bitcoin's. She also views gold's current rise more as a rebound within an existing downtrend than as a confirmed long-term trend reversal.
She acknowledged that gold still has intermediate-term momentum and could rise further. However, she believes it may encounter resistance sooner than Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, by contrast, rebounded after a relatively longer period of decline and bottom formation. The central argument in Stockton's analysis is that Bitcoin experienced an extended oversold period before recovering, improving not only its short-term momentum but also its intermediate-term momentum.
This comparison therefore does not mean that Bitcoin is inherently superior to gold as a safe-haven asset.
Rather, because gold and Bitcoin have followed different price formation patterns, the remaining upside indicated by their current charts can also be assessed differently.
Why Are US Treasury Bonds and the Dollar Being Discussed Alongside This Rally?
Recent movements in Bitcoin and gold are also connected to developments in the US Treasury market and the dollar. The US Treasury officially announced on August 19 that it would expand the size of its buyback operations to support liquidity in long-term Treasury securities.
The affected segments are nominal Treasury securities with maturities of 10–20 years and 20–30 years.
Previously, each buyback operation was capped at USD 2,000,000,000. Beginning September 9, the amount will increase to at least USD 4,000,000,000, more than doubling. The change applies to the relevant refunding quarter through November 4.
The Treasury's officially stated objective is to increase liquidity support in the long-term nominal Treasury market.
Following the announcement, debate intensified over long-term interest rates and the dollar, while Bitcoin and gold rose together. On August 26, the US Dollar Index stood around 98.95, having declined approximately 1% over August as a whole.
The simultaneous rise in Bitcoin and gold is sometimes interpreted as part of the so-called 'debasement trade,' in which investors move toward scarce assets amid concerns about declining fiat currency values.
However, the Treasury's expanded buyback program cannot explain Bitcoin's entire rally on its own. Treasury market developments, dollar movements, cryptocurrency supply and demand, and regulatory expectations are all evolving simultaneously. It would therefore be inappropriate to attribute the rally to a single cause.
Is the Bitcoin 95000–USD 100,000 Forecast Part of the Same Analysis?
No. The assessment that Bitcoin has greater upside potential than gold and the 95000–USD 100,000 price forecast come from different analysts.
When Bitcoin moved above USD 80,000 on August 25, a separate market forecast suggested that 95000–USD 100,000 could become achievable if the rally continued above USD 80,000.
However, this was not a price target provided by Katie Stockton.
The forecast also comes with conditions. Briefly touching USD 80,000 is not the same as decisively breaking through that level and sustaining an upward trend.
Calculating the increase required to move from USD 80,000 to USD 95,000 gives approximately 18.8%.
(95,000 - 80,000) ÷ 80,000 × 100 = 18.75%
Reaching USD 100,000 would require a further increase of 25%.
(100,000 - 80,000) ÷ 80,000 × 100 = 25%
For an asset that has already rebounded sharply to advance this much further, its current upward momentum would need to persist. Accordingly, 95000–USD 100,000 should not be treated as a confirmed future price path, but rather as one market forecast based on the condition that Bitcoin maintains its upward trend above USD 80,000.
Which Numbers Should Investors Watch From Here?
At current price levels, it is more practical to monitor Bitcoin's price action around USD 80,000 and whether its long-term trend remains intact than to keep adding new price targets.
The first level to watch is USD 80,000. Bitcoin climbed as high as USD 81,237.94 during intraday trading before falling back into the USD 79,000 range the following day. Whether it can repeatedly break above USD 80,000 and hold that level is the first benchmark for assessing its short-term direction.
The second indicator is the 200-day moving average. Because this level plays a central role in the current bullish technical argument, it is important to monitor whether Bitcoin remains above its long-term average or slips below it again.
The third factor is overbought signals. One reason Stockton sees room for further gains is her assessment that Bitcoin has not yet entered overbought territory despite its recent rebound. Whether that changes as the pace of the rally accelerates will also matter.
The fourth factor is gold's performance. Gold is also trading at elevated levels above USD 4,600 per ounce. Comparing whether gold and Bitcoin continue rising together or whether momentum weakens first in one asset can help show how this outlook develops in actual market conditions.
Finally, the dollar and the US long-term Treasury market remain important. The US Treasury's expanded long-term bond buybacks are scheduled to begin on September 9, potentially bringing renewed market attention to movements in the dollar and long-term yields.
The fact that Bitcoin has moved back above USD 80,000 is not the same as concluding that it will continue rising. What can currently be confirmed is that Bitcoin has rebounded rapidly to a 3-month high and that its technical indicators have improved. At the same time, its retreat from that high into the USD 79,000 range underscores the asset's substantial volatility.
Cryptocurrency prices can experience sharp fluctuations even over short periods. The view that Bitcoin has more upside potential than gold is only one technical assessment and does not guarantee investment returns.
※ This article is provided for informational purposes to help readers understand market trends and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any particular security or asset. Readers are responsible for their own investment decisions and outcomes.
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