Retail Investors Are Reducing Their Bitcoin Holdings Rather Than Simply Waiting on the Sidelines
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However, this trend alone is not enough to confirm that Bitcoin has entered an uptrend. As of 2026-08-08 at 10:51 a.m. Korea Standard Time, Bitcoin was trading at approximately USD 64,887, with the market still looking for confirmation of its direction near the closely watched USD 65,000 level.
Retail Investors Are Reducing Their Holdings Rather Than Simply Waiting on the Sidelines
One important aspect of this trend is the behavior of smaller investors. Current on-chain data suggests that some small Bitcoin wallets are actually reducing their holdings, making this a more accurate description than simply saying that retail investors are waiting on the sidelines.
According to data published by Santiment on August 6, while whale and shark wallets increased their holdings during the 6 10,000 3,000~6 10,000 USD 5,000 period, the decline in smaller holders' balances was the most pronounced since December 2024. A separate analysis showed that wallets holding 10~1 10,000 BTC had added more than 2 10,000 BTC since July 29.
However, wallets holding '10~1 10,000 BTC' should not all be interpreted as institutional investors. On-chain addresses do not correspond one-to-one with actual individuals or institutions, and they may include wallets operated by exchanges and custodial services. Therefore, an increase in whale holdings is an indicator of activity among large holders, not proof that a particular institution directly purchased 2 10,000 BTC.
ETF Inflows Have Returned, but the Figures Differ Depending on the Reporting Period
Flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have also recently supported buying demand. However, the difference between the approximately 7 hundred million USD 54,690,000 reported in the article and the subsequently confirmed weekly figures reflects differences in reporting periods and data providers.
Adding together Farside Investors' daily net inflows for August 3–7 gives USD 170,100,000 + USD 211,500,000 + USD 244,400,000 + USD 137,600,000 + USD 15,000,000, resulting in approximately USD 778,600,000 in net inflows. This is the author's calculation and is approximately USD 23,910,000, 3.2% higher than the previously reported USD 754,690,000. The difference is reasonably attributable to the addition of data from later trading sessions.
A simple comparison between the approximately USD 1,200,000,000 accumulated by whales and the USD 778,600,000 in ETF net inflows over the same period shows that the whale figure is approximately 1.54 times, or 54%, larger. However, these two figures should not be combined to calculate 'approximately USD 2,000,000,000 in new purchases.' Bitcoin held by ETFs may also be included in on-chain statistics for large wallets, making it impossible to determine whether the figures overlap.
The Price Level to Watch Now Is USD 65,000
The gap between the current price and USD 65,000 is approximately USD 113, or just 0.17% according to the author's calculation. Even so, a brief move above USD 65,000 during intraday trading would not be sufficient to establish a trend reversal.
Recent market analyses have also suggested that confirming a meaningful recovery requires Bitcoin to close above USD 65,000 and maintain its price above that level. The fact that prices have not yet risen substantially despite accumulation by large wallets and net ETF inflows is itself a reason not to interpret these signals prematurely as confirmation of a bullish trend.
Therefore, it is better to monitor three developments together rather than relying on a single indicator when assessing Bitcoin's next move.
First, investors should check whether Bitcoin can sustain trading above USD 65,000 rather than merely touching that level.
Second, it is important to see whether net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue for several more days. Inflows over a single day or week may also reflect portfolio reallocation or short-term trading, making their persistence more important.
Third, investors should monitor whether the declining holdings of smaller wallets begin to stabilize. A market in which demand improves among both large and small holders is better positioned to support a sustained price increase than one in which only whales are buying while smaller participants continue to withdraw.
Regulatory Developments Remain an Unresolved Market Factor
The CLARITY Act, which addresses the structure of the U.S. digital asset market, also remains an important variable. The bill passed the House of Representatives and cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 2026, but as of August 6, it had not yet completed consideration by the full Senate. The chair of the Senate Banking Committee has called for a floor vote, meaning market expectations surrounding regulation could shift again depending on how the legislative process develops.
Therefore, rather than treating regulatory expectations as an already confirmed positive catalyst and incorporating them directly into price forecasts, it is safer to verify the actual vote and whether the legislation ultimately advances to enactment.
Whale Buying Is Not a Buy Signal but an Early Change That Still Needs Confirmation
The current Bitcoin market can be summarized in one sentence: Large holders are accumulating again, smaller holders are reducing their positions, and prices have not yet followed these developments decisively.
Whale accumulation exceeding 2 10,000 BTC and net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs are clear signs that demand has improved compared with earlier conditions. On the other hand, a breakout above USD 65,000 has not been confirmed, and holdings in smaller wallets continue to decline. Therefore, several conditions still need to be verified before concluding that Bitcoin will immediately rise simply because whales have been buying.
Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset. Rather than making buying or selling decisions based solely on whale wallets, ETF fund flows, or a particular price level, investors should check whether multiple indicators are moving in the same direction and make decisions within a level of potential loss they can afford to bear.
※ This article is provided for informational purposes to help readers understand market trends and does not constitute an investment recommendation for any particular security or asset. Readers are responsible for their own final investment decisions and the associated risks.
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