U.S. September FOMC Rate Hike Probability at 93%: Why It Reflects Market Pricing, Not a Confirmed Decision# U.S. September FOMC Rate Hike Probability at 93%: Why It Reflects Market Pricing, Not a Confirmed Decision
The probability of a U.S. interest rate hike in September has been priced in at approximately 93%, but this is an estimate reflected in the interest rate futures market, not a probability announced by the Federal Reserve. As of 00:39 KST on 2026-09-16, the FOMC's final decision had not yet been announced, and the current federal funds target range was 3.50–3.75%. If the committee decides on a 0.25%-percentage-point increase at this meeting