Bitcoin Reclaims KRW 100,000,000 as MVRV Rebounds Sharply: Similarities and Differences Compared With Previous Market Bottoms
Bitcoin climbed back above KRW 100,000,000 in the South Korean market on 2026-08-20, while the on-chain MVRV indicator also showed a rapid rebound. Analysts noted similarities to the end of bottoming phases in previous bear-market cycles, but the current signal alone is not enough to confirm a definitive market bottom.
In particular, it is important to distinguish between two different observations: 'MVRV is low' and 'MVRV is rising rapidly from its bottom.' Even though both involve the same indicator, they carry different implications.
Bitcoin Reclaims KRW 100,000,000: How Much Did the Price Actually Move?
Bitcoin's price in South Korea continued its upward trend on 21 after recovering above KRW 100,000,000 on August 20.
According to historical BTC/KRW data from Bithumb, Bitcoin closed at KRW 100,619,000 on August 20 and KRW 107,566,000 on 21.
The difference between the two closing prices was KRW 6,947,000.
Author's calculation:
KRW 107,566,000 - KRW 100,619,000 = KRW 6,947,000
KRW 6,947,000 ÷ KRW 100,619,000 × 100 = approximately 6.9%
Based on the daily closing prices, this represents an increase of approximately KRW 6,950,000, or 6.9%.
However, reclaiming KRW 100,000,000 does not, by itself, mean Bitcoin has reached its bottom. Bitcoin prices denominated in South Korean won are influenced not only by Bitcoin's U.S. dollar price but also by the KRW/USD exchange rate and price differences between domestic and international exchanges.
What attracted even greater attention during this move was the change in MVRV rather than the price level itself.
The Latest Signal Does Not Mean MVRV Is 'At or Below 1'
MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value Ratio. It is calculated by dividing Bitcoin's market capitalization by its realized capitalization.
Realized capitalization differs from conventional market capitalization, which values all Bitcoin at the current market price. Instead, realized capitalization reflects the price at which each Bitcoin last moved on the blockchain, providing a way to assess the market's aggregate cost basis.
The formula is as follows.
MVRV = Market Capitalization ÷ Realized Capitalization
When MVRV is 1, it can be interpreted as indicating that the market price and the market's aggregate realized cost basis are at similar levels. When MVRV falls below 1, market capitalization is lower than realized capitalization.
CryptoQuant's explanation of the indicator also notes that MVRV readings at or below 1 have historically been used as one reference point for identifying potential Bitcoin bottoming zones.
However, the signal attracting attention this time is not simply that MVRV has fallen below 1.
What the analysis published on August 21 emphasized was the emergence of a pattern in which MVRV rose sharply from its lows alongside Bitcoin's recent price rebound. The analyst interpreted this movement as resembling patterns previously observed when Bitcoin was emerging from bottoming phases during bear-market cycles.
In other words, the two signals need to be distinguished.
A low MVRV indicates how close the market price is to the aggregate cost basis, while a sharp MVRV rebound indicates whether that previously depressed valuation is recovering rapidly.
Similarities to Previous Market Bottoms Do Not Confirm That This Is the Final Bottom
The reason this signal has attracted attention is its historical precedent.
The same analyst previously explained that when MVRV fell to 1.1 on June 2026, periods in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022 when MVRV dropped below 1 coincided with areas near cycle bottoms.
Later, during the rebound on August, a new development emerged as the previously depressed MVRV began rising rapidly. The current analysis focuses on how this change resembles patterns seen near the end of previous bear-market cycles.
However, interpreting this as 'the same pattern appeared in the past, so a new bull market is now confirmed' would go beyond what the evidence supports.
MVRV does not measure price alone. It measures the relationship between market value and realized value. When Bitcoin's price rises rapidly, its market capitalization can also increase quickly, pushing MVRV higher.
CryptoQuant's explanation of the indicator also states that rising MVRV means market capitalization is increasing faster than realized capitalization. As more Bitcoin holdings move into profit, the potential incentive to sell may also increase.
Therefore, a rising MVRV is not always a bullish signal.
The significance of the current analysis is not simply that MVRV is increasing. Rather, it considers the sharp change in direction following a decline during a bear-market cycle, together with patterns observed in previous cycles.
An MVRV of 1.3 Should Not Be Confused With the 'Undervalued Zone'
Materials covering the analysis published on August 21 reported that MVRV was approximately 1.3 at the time.
This reading is above 1. Therefore, it would also be inaccurate to say that 'MVRV is currently in the typical undervalued zone below 1.'
This distinction makes the nature of the latest signal clearer.
What has attracted attention is not so much that MVRV is extremely low, but that its direction has shifted sharply upward after previously declining.
Confusing the 'level' of MVRV with its 'direction' can lead to different conclusions.
Looking for MVRV near or below 1 is an approach focused on how close the market price is to the aggregate realized cost basis. By contrast, interpreting the current sharp rebound involves assessing whether market valuations are recovering from an already established bottoming zone.
That is why 'the market has reached its bottom price' and 'a pattern previously observed when the market was emerging from a bottoming phase has appeared' do not mean the same thing.
The latter is what the currently available evidence supports.
Claims That U.S. Treasury Buybacks Definitively Caused the Rally Also Require Caution
Some explanations of Bitcoin's recent rebound have claimed that the U.S. Treasury expanded its buybacks of long-term Treasury securities with maturities of 10–30 years from the previous USD 2,000,000,000 per operation to at least USD 4,000,000,000.
However, the U.S. Treasury's official 3-quarter buyback schedule, released on 2026-08-05, lists the maximum amount for liquidity-support buybacks of nominal Treasury securities maturing in 10–20 years and 20–30 years as USD 2,000,000,000 per operation for each category.
A USD 4,000,000,000 limit appears in other maturity categories. However, based on the official schedule alone, it is difficult to verify that the per-operation limit for the entire 10–30-year long-term maturity range was increased to at least USD 4,000,000,000.
The U.S. Treasury stated that, for the quarter as a whole, it planned to purchase up to USD 38,000,000,000 in off-the-run Treasury securities for liquidity-support purposes and up to USD 25,000,000,000 in securities with maturities ranging from 1 months to 2 years for cash-management purposes.
Accordingly, this article does not treat the claim that 'Bitcoin rose because long-term Treasury buybacks were expanded from USD 2,000,000,000 to at least USD 4,000,000,000' as an established explanation for the rebound.
For an asset such as Bitcoin, whose price can fluctuate significantly within a single day, it is difficult to explain a particular day's gains through one policy decision or a single indicator alone.
What Matters Now Is Whether the Signal Holds, Not Whether It Identified the Exact Bottom
As of 2026-08-22, three key developments can be identified.
First, Bitcoin's price in South Korea climbed back above KRW 100,000,000 for the first time in approximately two months.
Second, MVRV, which had declined during the bearish phase, rose rapidly alongside the recent price rebound.
Third, analysts identified similarities between the current MVRV movement and patterns seen near the end of previous bear-market cycles. However, this signal does not guarantee a definitive bottom or any particular magnitude of future price gains.
When monitoring MVRV going forward, it is more accurate to consider not just a single number but where the current reading stands, how it has changed from its previous low, and how Bitcoin's price and realized capitalization are each moving.
In particular, a sharp rise in MVRV can also coincide with increasing unrealized profits among market participants. Interpretations that assume 'the indicator is rising, so it will keep rising' should therefore be avoided.
Bitcoin is an asset that can experience substantial price swings even over short periods. Recurring historical on-chain patterns can provide useful context for assessing current market conditions, but they do not mean that the same price trajectory will necessarily repeat.
The key takeaway from August 2026 is not that 'the bottom has been confirmed.' Rather, it is that an analysis has emerged identifying, for the first time in the current bear-market cycle, an MVRV reversal resembling those observed when previous bottoming phases were coming to an end.
※ This article is provided for informational purposes to help readers understand market developments and does not constitute an investment recommendation regarding any particular security or asset. Readers are responsible for their own final investment decisions and the associated risks.