U.S. Stock Market Schedule for the Third Week of July: From the CPI Release Time to TSMC Earnings
During the third week of July 2026, the U.S. stock market faces a series of major events, including the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Federal Reserve Chair's congressional testimony, major bank earnings, and TSMC's 2-quarter earnings.
Another variable emerged over the weekend while U.S. markets were closed: Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, adding uncertainty surrounding international oil prices and the outlook for interest rates.
This week, investors should look beyond expectations for AI earnings and also watch whether oil prices and inflation change the expected path of U.S. interest rates.
The information is current as of 2026-07-12 at 9:49 a.m. Korea Standard Time. Because U.S. stock markets are closed over the weekend, developments in the Middle East have not yet been reflected in Friday's closing prices.
AI Stocks Lifted U.S. Markets on Friday
On July 10, U.S. stocks closed slightly higher.
The S&P500 rose 0.4% to 7,575.39, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% to reach 26,281.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced 0.3%, closing at 52,637.01.
AI-related stocks once again led the gains. Nvidia climbed approximately 4% and closed at USD 210.96.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin was trading around USD 63,800 during the same period. While capital flowed into AI stocks, Bitcoin struggled to establish a clear upward trend.
However, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs did not experience uninterrupted outflows.
Adding up their daily net flows from July 6 through 10 gives approximately USD 197,400,000 in net inflows.
The problem was the inconsistency of those flows.
There were net outflows of USD 84,900,000 on July 8 and USD 95,300,000 on 9, but USD 90,400,000 flowed back in on 10. Although the weekly total was positive, investor sentiment continued to shift rapidly from day to day.
This Week's Key Events in Korea Standard Time
| Korea Standard Time | Major Event | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| July 14, 8 p.m. | JPMorgan's 2-quarter earnings announcement scheduled | Loan demand, delinquency rates, consumer conditions |
| July 14, 9:30 p.m. | U.S. June CPI release | Core inflation and month-over-month increases |
| July 14, 9:30 p.m. | JPMorgan earnings conference call | Management's economic outlook for the second half of the year |
| July 14, 11 p.m. | Federal Reserve Chair's testimony before the House of Representatives | Changes in language regarding inflation and interest rates |
| July 15, 9:30 p.m. | U.S. June Producer Price Index release | Business costs and future consumer inflation pressures |
| July 15, 11 p.m. | Federal Reserve Chair's testimony before the Senate | Comments on the possibility of interest rate hikes |
| July 16 | TSMC's 2-quarter earnings announcement | AI semiconductor demand and capital expenditure outlook |
For events scheduled in U.S. Eastern Time, Korea is 13 hours ahead. Because schedules and event start times may change, checking official announcements again on the day of each event is advisable.
Oil Prices Could Move Before the CPI Figures Are Released
Brent crude closed Friday at USD 76.01 per barrel. Although it declined slightly during the day, it gained approximately 5.5% over the week.
Over the weekend, reports emerged that Iran had announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and that the United States had launched additional attacks.
Because the weekend developments were not reflected in Friday's U.S. stock market or international oil closing prices, price volatility could increase in Asian markets and U.S. stock index futures on Monday.
If oil prices surge again, markets may become concerned about future inflation even if the CPI comes in below expectations.
Conversely, if shipping through the strait quickly returns to normal and oil prices stabilize, investors are likely to shift their attention back to the CPI and corporate earnings.
Four Indicators to Watch After the CPI Release
When the CPI is released, it can be tempting to judge the market's direction solely from the initial reaction of stock indexes. However, it is more useful to monitor four indicators together immediately after the announcement.
Whether the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities rises or falls
Whether the U.S. Dollar Index strengthens or weakens
Whether Nasdaq futures outperform the S&P500
Whether Bitcoin recovers to around USD 64,000
If the CPI comes in below expectations and Treasury yields decline, the environment could become more favorable for growth stocks such as Nvidia. Bitcoin could also benefit from a weaker dollar and expectations of improved liquidity.
Conversely, if the CPI is higher than expected or the Federal Reserve Chair emphasizes inflation risks, long-term interest rates could rise. In that scenario, even AI companies with strong earnings expectations could face valuation pressure, while Bitcoin could also come under pressure.
The confirmed facts from official schedules are the CPI release and the Federal Reserve's congressional testimony. Potential market movements following these events are interpretations based on historical reactions and the current market structure, not predetermined outcomes.
TSMC's Outlook Is a More Direct Catalyst for AI Stocks
TSMC is scheduled to announce its 2-quarter earnings on July 16.
Beyond the revenue figure itself, investors should pay attention to the following aspects of TSMC's results.
Demand outlook for AI accelerators and high-performance computing
Utilization rates at advanced manufacturing nodes
Advanced packaging supply conditions
Capital expenditure plans for the second half of the year
The impact of rising costs on profitability
Even if Nvidia shares have risen significantly, the broader semiconductor sector could come under pressure if TSMC presents a cautious outlook for AI semiconductor orders or capital spending.
Conversely, if demand expectations and investment plans remain intact, the AI semiconductor rally could broaden beyond a handful of large-cap stocks to include semiconductor equipment, memory, and data center-related companies.
What to Check First in This Week's Market
On Monday, start by checking international oil prices and U.S. stock index futures. These indicators can help show how much of the weekend news surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has been priced into the market.
On Tuesday at 9:30 p.m., monitor the CPI alongside the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities. At 11 p.m., check whether the Federal Reserve Chair changes the language used to describe inflation and interest rates during testimony before the House of Representatives.
Wednesday brings the Producer Price Index and Senate testimony. On Thursday, TSMC's assessment of AI demand could influence the semiconductor sector's next move.
For Bitcoin, it is worth monitoring not only the price but also whether spot ETF fund flows turn negative again.
This article summarizes publicly available schedules and market data for investment reference purposes. It does not recommend buying or selling any particular stock or cryptocurrency.
※ This article is provided for informational purposes to help readers understand market developments and does not constitute investment advice regarding any particular stock or asset. Readers are responsible for their own investment decisions and the associated risks.