Nvidia Earnings Announcement in the Early Hours of 27: Why 3 Quarter Guidance Matters More Than Revenue of USD 91,000,000,000
Nvidia's 2 quarter earnings for fiscal year 2027 are scheduled to be released at approximately 5:20 a.m. on 2026-08-27 Korea time, with the conference call beginning at 6 a.m. As of 9:1 p.m. on August 26, the actual 2 quarter results had not yet been announced. The company's currently available revenue guidance is USD 91,000,000,000±2%, while the market consensus is approximately 921 billion 8 million dollars. Rather than focusing only on whether revenue exceeds expectations, investors should also examine the 3 quarter revenue outlook and whether gross margins are projected to remain around 75%.
What Is the Exact Time of Nvidia's Earnings Announcement in Korea?
Nvidia is scheduled to release its 2 quarter results at approximately 1:20 p.m. Pacific Time on August 26, followed by a conference call at 2 p.m. Converted to Korea time, this means the earnings release is expected at approximately 5:20 a.m. on August 27, followed by the conference call at 6 a.m.
This reporting period is Nvidia's 2 quarter of fiscal year 2027, and the actual operating period ended on 2026-07-26. That explains why results falling in calendar year 2026 are designated FY2027 Q2 under Nvidia's fiscal calendar.
It is useful to distinguish between the earnings release time and the conference call time. The financial figures are expected to become available first, around 5:20 a.m. Subsequent explanations from the CFO and the conference call at 6 a.m. will provide additional details about the next-quarter outlook and individual business segments.
For Korean investors checking the results after the market closes, the quickest approach is to review revenue, margins, and next-quarter guidance starting around 5:20 a.m., then follow the explanations released after 6 a.m. for more detail.
Should 2 Quarter Revenue Be Measured Against USD 91,000,000,000 or 921 Billion 8 Million Dollars?
The two figures represent different benchmarks. USD 91,000,000,000 is the midpoint of Nvidia's official revenue guidance issued in the previous quarter, while 921 billion 8 million dollars is the market consensus compiled ahead of the earnings announcement.
Nvidia's official revenue outlook for the 2 quarter was USD 91,000,000,000, with a range of ±2%. Expressed as monetary amounts, the company's projected range was approximately 891 billion 8 million to 928 billion 2 million dollars.
Author's calculations:
Lower bound: USD 91,000,000,000 × 98% = 891 billion 8 million dollars
Midpoint: USD 91,000,000,000
Upper bound: USD 91,000,000,000 × 102% = 928 billion 2 million dollars
The market consensus of 921 billion 8 million dollars is 11 billion 8 million dollars, or approximately 1.3%, higher than the midpoint of the company's guidance. However, it still falls within Nvidia's stated ±2% range.
Therefore, revenue exceeding USD 91,000,000,000 does not automatically mean Nvidia has beaten market expectations. For example, if revenue comes in at USD 91,500,000,000, it would exceed the company's guidance midpoint but fall short of the market consensus of 921 billion 8 million dollars.
Actual revenue in the preceding 1 quarter was USD 81,615,000,000. Assuming the company achieves its guidance midpoint of USD 91,000,000,000, quarterly revenue would increase by approximately USD 9,385,000,000, representing a quarter-over-quarter growth rate of approximately 11.5%, according to the author's calculation.
Why 3 Quarter Guidance Deserves More Attention Than Revenue
One of the most important new figures in this earnings release will be Nvidia's revenue outlook for the 3 quarter of fiscal year 2027. While 2 quarter revenue reflects a period that has already ended, the new guidance indicates how the company views the coming quarter based on current orders and shipment conditions.
Ahead of the announcement, the market expects 3 quarter revenue of approximately USD 104,200,000,000. This is not an official figure announced by Nvidia. It is an analyst consensus estimate compiled by LSEG, and the company's actual guidance should be compared against it after the announcement in the early hours of August 27.
The comparison is straightforward.
Even if actual 2 quarter revenue exceeds market expectations, the newly issued 3 quarter revenue outlook could point in the opposite direction if it falls below market expectations. Conversely, even if 2 quarter results are broadly in line with expectations, a stronger-than-expected outlook for the following quarter could change how the results are interpreted.
The transition to Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin products is another important topic likely to be discussed. According to market expectations reported at the time, Rubin shipments are anticipated to begin this fall, and investors are watching the pace of the transition from existing Blackwell products to Rubin.
However, Rubin's revenue contribution and its actual impact on the 3 quarter cannot be treated as confirmed until Nvidia releases its earnings and provides further explanations.
Why a Gross Margin of 75% Matters
In its previous quarterly outlook for the 2 quarter, Nvidia projected a GAAP gross margin of 74.9% and a non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0%, each with a range of ±0.5% percentage points. Actual gross margins in the preceding 1 quarter were also 74.9% under GAAP and 75.0% under non-GAAP measures.
Gross margin measures the proportion of revenue remaining after subtracting the direct costs of providing products and services. Even when revenue grows rapidly, higher manufacturing costs or changes in product mix can reduce margins, causing profit growth to differ from revenue growth.
The market currently expects adjusted gross margins in both the 2 and 3 quarters to remain around 75%. Therefore, investors should compare not only the actual 2 quarter margin but also whether the 3 quarter margin outlook remains near 75%.
For example, even if revenue exceeds market expectations, a gross margin substantially below the company's previous guidance range would raise questions about how effectively revenue growth translates into profit. Conversely, if both revenue and margins meet expectations, it becomes easier to assess the quality of the financial results.
GAAP and non-GAAP figures should not be mixed when making comparisons. Starting with the 1 quarter of fiscal year 2027, Nvidia changed its non-GAAP financial reporting methodology to include stock-based compensation expenses. Investors comparing historical figures should therefore verify that the same accounting basis is being used.
What Should Investors Watch Regarding China Revenue?
When Nvidia issued its USD 91,000,000,000 revenue guidance for the 2 quarter, it explicitly stated that the forecast did not include data center compute revenue from China. Therefore, USD 91,000,000,000 should not be interpreted as a normal global demand forecast that includes Chinese data center revenue.
This is an important condition when comparing the upcoming results with the previous quarter or market expectations. Investors will need to check the new earnings materials to determine whether any China-related revenue was actually generated and what assumptions the company applies to its next-quarter outlook.
In particular, when reviewing 3 quarter guidance, investors should not consider the revenue figure in isolation. They should also examine how Nvidia accounts for China data center compute revenue in its assumptions. Even with the same USD 100,000,000,000 forecast, differences in the markets and products included can change the basis of comparison.
At this point, Nvidia has not yet disclosed how much China-related revenue was generated in the 2 quarter or how much will be reflected in its 3 quarter guidance. The safest approach is to rely only on the information explicitly confirmed by the company after the earnings release.
Will Nvidia's Stock Rise Immediately If Earnings Are Strong?
The stock's direction after earnings is not determined by revenue alone. Ahead of this announcement, the options market was pricing in a potential move of approximately 5.4% in either direction in Nvidia shares on the following trading day. In market capitalization terms, that would correspond to a change of approximately USD 280,000,000,000. This is not a prediction that the stock will necessarily move by 5.4%; it represents the magnitude of the move implied by options prices.
According to the same data, the options market had priced in a move of 6.5% ahead of the previous May earnings announcement, while the average actual post-earnings move over the most recent 12 quarters was 7.4%. The current 5.4% implied move is smaller than both benchmarks.
When evaluating the stock, it is important to separate actual results from market expectations. Even if Nvidia reports record revenue, the stock's reaction could be limited if investors had already anticipated an even higher figure. Conversely, even if some results fall below expectations, stronger next-quarter guidance or profitability indicators could produce a different market response.
For that reason, rather than looking first at the stock price immediately after the announcement in the early hours of August 27, it is better to compare the figures in the following order.
1. 2 quarter revenue — Compare Nvidia's USD 91,000,000,000 company guidance with the market consensus of approximately 921 billion 8 million dollars.
2. Gross margin — Compare the result with the company's previously projected non-GAAP margin of 75.0%±0.5% percentage points.
3. 3 quarter revenue guidance — Compare the new outlook with the pre-announcement market estimate of approximately USD 104,200,000,000.
4. 3 quarter gross margin outlook — Check whether the forecast remains around 75%.
5. China data center compute revenue assumptions — Identify any conditions attached to the new guidance.
6. Blackwell and Rubin commentary — Focus only on shipment and revenue details explicitly confirmed by the company.
Following this sequence makes it easier to identify which aspects of the announcement have changed existing market expectations, rather than reducing the results to a single statement such as 'earnings were strong' or 'the company beat estimates.'
As of 9:1 p.m. Korea time on August 26, Nvidia had not yet released its actual 2 quarter revenue, net income, earnings per share, or official 3 quarter guidance. The first step is to compare the actual figures expected at approximately 5:20 a.m. on 27 separately against the existing USD 91,000,000,000 company guidance and the market consensus of 921 billion 8 million dollars.
※ This article is provided for informational purposes to help readers understand market developments. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or asset. All investment decisions and their consequences are the responsibility of the individual investor.
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