Bitcoin Surges Past 81000 Dollars Before Falling to the 79000-Dollar Range as Rate Hike Fears Resurface
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Bitcoin climbed above 81,000 dollars during intraday trading on September 3 as concerns about U.S. monetary policy eased, reaching its highest level since mid-May. However, stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data on September 4 revived expectations of a possible interest rate hike, and Bitcoin retreated to the 79,000-dollar range by the latest available reporting time on September 5.
The situation has therefore moved beyond a simple 'Bitcoin rally driven by easing interest rate hike concerns.' Market attention has already shifted away from the breakout above 81,000 dollars itself toward whether U.S. inflation data on September will push the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in one direction or the other.
How High Did Bitcoin Actually Rise?
On September 3, Bitcoin climbed to approximately 81,400 dollars during intraday trading. This was its highest confirmed intraday price since May 15. Given that Bitcoin had previously fallen below 77,000 dollars, the price movement within a single day was substantial.
At the time, markets focused on comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. In a speech on September 3, Waller said recent inflation trends showed signs of disinflation, meaning a slowdown in the rate of price increases. He indicated that if this trend continued, he could support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting.
However, Waller's remarks did not confirm an interest rate hold. He also attached a condition: if inflation data on August came in stronger again, a rate hike could be considered. Markets were responding not to a definitive signal that rates would not rise, but to a conditional statement suggesting that keeping rates unchanged might become a more likely option.
The current target range for the U.S. federal funds rate is 3.50~3.75%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept rates unchanged at its July meeting, although three members preferred an increase of 0.25% points. In other words, discussions about raising interest rates had not disappeared.
Why Did Market Sentiment Change Again in Just One Day?
The U.S. employment report for August, released on September 4, came in stronger than expected, changing the interest rate outlook once again. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%.
The gap between market expectations and the actual figures was particularly significant. Markets had forecast an increase of approximately 56,000 jobs, but the actual increase reached 162,000.
According to the author's calculations, the actual increase exceeded market expectations by 106,000 jobs and was approximately 2.9 times the forecast.
The calculation is as follows.
162,000 jobs ÷ 56,000 jobs ≈ 2.89 times
Stronger-than-expected employment can be interpreted as a sign that the U.S. economy is not weakening so rapidly that it can no longer withstand elevated interest rates. With inflation still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, strong employment could give policymakers more room to consider raising rates.
Indeed, immediately after the employment report, the probability of a September rate hike implied by short-term interest rate futures rose again. Following Waller's comments on September 3, the probability of rates remaining unchanged had climbed to approximately 50%. After the employment report, however, markets shifted back toward pricing in a greater-than-even chance of a rate hike.
Bitcoin reacted sensitively to this shift. Based on prices published on the afternoon of September 5, Bitcoin was trading at approximately 79,644 dollars, representing a decline of around 1.8% over 24 hours.
In other words, this was not a case of Bitcoin 'breaking above 81,000 dollars and continuing to rise.' Instead, it was a period in which the price moved rapidly above and below 8 dollars as monetary policy expectations changed.
Why Do Interest Rates and Bitcoin Prices Move Together?
Bitcoin's daily price movements cannot be explained by U.S. interest rates alone. However, during periods of uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy direction, such as the current environment, interest rate expectations can simultaneously affect the dollar, Treasury yields, and investors' appetite for risk, potentially amplifying cryptocurrency price fluctuations.
When expectations of interest rate hikes weaken, investors may anticipate a decline in the relative attractiveness of interest-bearing assets such as bonds. This can lead more investors to expect conditions that favor capital moving into risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, when stronger-than-expected economic data increases the likelihood of higher interest rates, Treasury yields and the dollar may rise, creating pressure on risk assets. Following the employment report on September 4, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury securities increased, the dollar strengthened, and Bitcoin fell below 8 dollars.
Importantly, this does not mean these relationships always move in the same direction. Bitcoin is influenced by several factors simultaneously, including spot-market supply and demand, ETF fund flows, derivatives positioning, regulatory developments, and market liquidity. Interest rate expectations should be viewed as one of the factors that have recently had a substantial impact on prices.
Does Breaking Above 81000 Dollars Confirm a New Uptrend?
A breakout above 81,000 dollars alone is not enough to confirm a new upward trend. Although Bitcoin reached its highest level since mid-May on September 3, it fell back below 8 dollars the following day after stronger employment data was released.
More important than the price level itself are the conditions needed to sustain it. In early September, Bitcoin quickly gave back part of its gains when expectations for U.S. interest rates changed within a single day.
A simple comparison between the approximately 79,644 dollars recorded on September 5 and the intraday price of approximately 81,400 dollars on September 3 shows a difference of about 1,756 dollars.
According to the author's calculations, the decline was approximately 2.2%.
(79,644 dollars - 81,400 dollars) ÷ 81,400 dollars × 100 ≈ -2.16%
These prices were recorded at different times, so this is not a comparison of closing prices from equivalent trading periods. Nevertheless, the figures confirm that Bitcoin did not immediately establish a sustained position above 81,000 dollars after breaking through that level.
When assessing short-term movements, it is important to look beyond whether Bitcoin crosses a particular price level once. Investors should also monitor how buying and selling activity develops around 8 dollars and how interest rate expectations respond to upcoming U.S. inflation data.
The Most Important Dates Now Are September 10, 11, and 16
One of the key factors likely to influence the next price movement is U.S. inflation data for August. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August is scheduled for release on September 10, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
Because Governor Waller explicitly stated that inflation data for August would be important to his interest rate assessment, these releases could have a more direct influence on the policy decision than the employment figures.
The FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15~16. The federal funds rate target range maintained at the July meeting is 3.50~3.75%.
At this point, neither a rate hike nor a decision to hold rates unchanged can be considered certain. On September 3, expectations of a rate hold increased on the possibility that inflation was slowing. However, stronger-than-expected employment data on September 4 subsequently increased the perceived likelihood of a rate hike again.
Therefore, the following sequence is particularly important when monitoring what happens next.
1. U.S. PPI for August on September 10
2. U.S. CPI for August on September 11
3. Changes in market expectations for a September rate hike or hold following the inflation releases
4. The actual FOMC decision at the September 15~16 meeting
5. Whether Bitcoin can recover or maintain a position around 8 dollars
The Most Important Way to Interpret Bitcoin Right Now
The key takeaway from this rally is not simply that Bitcoin exceeded 81,000 dollars for the first time in approximately 3 months. More importantly, it demonstrates how sensitive Bitcoin prices have become to changes in expectations for U.S. interest rates.
On September 3, Bitcoin rose above 81,000 dollars as sentiment toward risk assets improved following Governor Waller's conditional remarks about keeping rates unchanged. A day later, stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data renewed expectations of a rate hike, sending Bitcoin back below 8 dollars.
Rather than drawing a firm conclusion about Bitcoin's direction based solely on its breakout above 81,000 dollars, it is more practical to consider the September inflation figures and FOMC decision together.
Bitcoin is an asset capable of substantial price fluctuations even over short periods. This episode does not mean that a single statement by a Federal Reserve official or one economic indicator can determine its next price movement. Investment decisions should take into account the timing of price observations, market volatility, and each investor's ability to tolerate losses.
※ This article is provided for informational purposes to help readers understand market developments and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any particular security or asset. All final investment decisions and responsibilities rest with the individual investor.
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이 포스팅은 쿠팡 파트너스 활동의 일환으로, 이에 따른 일정액의 수수료를 제공받습니다.