Bitcoin Breaks Above USD 70,000: Why a Year-End USD 100,000 Forecast Has Emerged and What Conditions Remain
Bitcoin climbed back above USD 70,000 in global markets on 2026-08-20. The move came as bond yields and the dollar declined and risk assets rebounded following the U.S. Treasury's announcement of expanded buybacks of long-term government bonds. Standard Chartered reiterated its year-end USD 100,000 forecast, but reaching USD 100,000 from the current price would still require an additional gain of approximately 40%.
The information was verified as of 2026-08-20 at 7:17 p.m. Korea Standard Time.
How Much Has Bitcoin Actually Risen?
On August 20, Bitcoin surpassed USD 70,000 during intraday trading in global markets, climbing into the USD 71,000 range. A day earlier, it had jumped into the USD 68,000 range, with gains accelerating rapidly over the two-day period.
In the U.S. market on August 19, Bitcoin was recorded at USD 68,470.91, up 6.06%. The following day, it climbed to approximately USD 71,288 during intraday trading, entering its highest price range since early June.
A similar movement was observed in South Korea. At 9 a.m. on August 20, Bitcoin was trading at KRW 95,347,000 on Upbit, up 4.6% from 24 hours earlier, and reached the KRW 96,000,000 range during intraday trading.
What matters about this movement is not simply the percentage gain in a single day. Bitcoin has broken out of a period in which it struggled to establish a direction in the low-to-mid USD 60,000 range and has once again tested USD 70,000.
However, briefly crossing USD 70,000 is different from establishing a stable trading range above USD 70,000. Immediately after a sharp rally, profit-taking and futures position liquidations can occur simultaneously, potentially increasing intraday volatility.
The Most Immediate Development Behind the Surge Was the Expansion of U.S. Long-Term Treasury Buybacks
The policy development most closely aligned with the timing of the sharp price movement was the U.S. Treasury's announcement of expanded buybacks of long-term government bonds.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would more than double the size of liquidity-support buybacks targeting nominal Treasury securities with maturities of 10–20 years and 20–30 years, increasing the limit from a previous maximum of USD 2,000,000,000 per operation to at least USD 4,000,000,000.
The new limits are scheduled to apply from 2026-09-09 through November 4.
A buyback is a process in which the U.S. government repurchases previously issued Treasury securities already trading in the market, particularly bonds with relatively low liquidity. The officially stated purpose of this announcement was also to support liquidity in the long-term Treasury market.
Following the announcement, long-term Treasury yields declined and the dollar weakened. On August 19, the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.84% to 98.80, while Bitcoin rose 6.06% over the same period.
However, interpreting this as the U.S. government directly injecting money to raise Bitcoin's price would be an overstatement. The Treasury's stated objective was to support liquidity in the long-term government bond market, and Bitcoin's rise was one of several financial market reactions that accompanied the announcement.
The more accurate interpretation is therefore the following market sequence: Expansion of Treasury buybacks → lower long-term yields and a weaker dollar → renewed appetite for risk assets alongside rising Bitcoin prices.
Money Has Also Started Flowing Back Into Spot Bitcoin ETFs
The latest rebound was accompanied by a shift in fund flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
After a recent period of persistent net outflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shifted to net inflows beginning on August 17, with approximately USD 1,004,050,000 in cumulative net inflows recorded over the following three days.
Spot ETF fund flows matter because they provide institutions and individual investors with a way to gain exposure to Bitcoin's price through brokerage accounts without directly holding the cryptocurrency.
Continued net outflows from ETFs can add selling pressure to the market, while a return to net inflows can change the direction of supply and demand.
That does not mean a few days of ETF inflows are enough to confirm a long-term bull market. This time, several developments occurred around the same period, including movements in the Treasury market, dollar weakness, and changes in ETF fund flows.
To determine whether prices can remain elevated, it is more useful to monitor whether net inflows continue for several days or longer while prices remain stable, rather than focusing on a single day's inflow figure.
Who Issued the Year-End USD 100,000 Forecast?
The institution behind the year-end USD 100,000 forecast is Standard Chartered.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, described the U.S. Treasury's latest move as creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin and forecast a move toward USD 100,000 by the end of 2026.
However, USD 100,000 is neither a guaranteed price nor a consensus forecast for the entire market. It is a projection from one financial institution.
Standard Chartered has not maintained the same forecast throughout the year. Its previous year-end price target was higher, but in February this year, it lowered the target from USD 150,000 to USD 100,000.
The gap between the current price and that target also remains substantial.
Using the intraday price of USD 71,288 as the basis for a direct calculation:
(100,000 - 71,288) ÷ 71,288 × 100 = approximately 40.3%
This is the result.
In other words, for Bitcoin to rise from USD 71,288 to the year-end target of USD 100,000, it would need an additional gain of approximately 40.3%. This is the author's calculation, based on dollar-denominated prices and independent of exchange rates.
Using USD 70,000 as a simple reference point, the required increase would be approximately 42.9%.
Even though Bitcoin has posted substantial gains over the past day or two, the distance to the USD 100,000 forecast remains considerable. Breaking above USD 70,000 and reaching USD 100,000 should be treated as separate milestones.
Breaking Above USD 70,000 Does Not Confirm an Uptrend
One of the most important points to consider in this rebound is that the sharp rise included liquidations of short positions in the futures market.
A short position is a trade made in anticipation of falling prices. If prices instead rise rapidly, traders may have to buy back the asset to limit their losses. When such buying orders arrive simultaneously, they can amplify the price increase.
As a result, a powerful short-term rally may reflect not only new long-term buying but also purchases made to close existing bets on falling prices.
The latest U.S. Treasury measure is also not equivalent to quantitative easing by a central bank. The Treasury's stated objective is to support liquidity in the long-term government bond market, and increasing buyback limits does not necessarily mean the money supply directly increases by the same amount.
There are also factors that could push the market in the opposite direction. At the Federal Reserve's July meeting, some officials expressed the view that additional interest rate increases could be necessary if inflation does not decline sufficiently.
If interest rates rise again or the dollar strengthens, the financial conditions that supported Bitcoin during this rally could change.
Ultimately, what has been confirmed is that Bitcoin has once again broken above USD 70,000. What remains unconfirmed is whether this move will continue toward USD 100,000 by year-end.
What Should Investors Watch Before Focusing on the Price Target?
Looking ahead, it is more practical to examine whether the conditions behind this rally persist than to focus exclusively on the USD 100,000 price target.
First, movements in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar need to be monitored. Long-term yields declined and the Dollar Index weakened around the time of this rally, so a reversal in those trends could weigh on Bitcoin.
Second, investors should monitor fund flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Approximately USD 1,000,000,000 in net inflows over three days represents a departure from the previous pattern of net outflows, but whether that trend will persist requires further confirmation.
Third is whether Bitcoin can hold its price near USD 70,000. Briefly crossing a price level and maintaining it for several days carry different implications for the market.
Finally, U.S. monetary policy remains important. Even if long-term yields stabilize, a renewed hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook could increase volatility across risk assets.
Looking at this rebound alone, Bitcoin has escaped the sluggish trading pattern in the USD 60,000 range and moved back above USD 70,000. However, simply extrapolating current prices to the year-end USD 100,000 forecast would overlook the additional gain of approximately 40% still required, as well as several remaining policy and supply-demand variables.
The figures investors should monitor now are not just the USD 100,000 price target, but Bitcoin's ability to hold near USD 70,000, spot ETF fund flows, and the direction of U.S. long-term Treasury yields and the dollar.
※ This article is provided for informational purposes to help readers understand market developments and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any particular security or asset. Final investment decisions and responsibility rest with the individual investor.