Bitcoin Rebounds Above KRW 100,000,000, Reviving the USD 100,000 Forecast: Current Price and How Far It Still Has to Go
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Bitcoin has climbed back above KRW 100,000,000 in the South Korean market and has retained much of its gains. The real-time price linked to Bithumb's BTC/KRW market, checked at 7:50 PM on 2026-08-22, was approximately KRW 105,168,000. Meanwhile, the year-end USD 100,000 target being discussed in the market is not a confirmed price but a forecast made by Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick. Based on the recent price level of around USD 76,000, reaching that target would require an additional increase of approximately 30%.
When Did Bitcoin Climb Back Above KRW 100,000,000?
Bitcoin's price in South Korea began recovering above the KRW 100,000,000 level around August 20, and its gains accelerated further above KRW 100,000,000 on 21. According to Upbit, the price at 9 AM on August 21 was KRW 100,591,000, marking the first time the domestic price had exceeded KRW 100,000,000 since June 1.
The price recorded at June 1 was KRW 104,140,000. After that, Bitcoin remained below KRW 100,000,000 for an extended period through July and into mid-August.
Bithumb's daily BTC/KRW data also shows a clear trend. The closing price on August 19 was KRW 95,246,000, compared with KRW 100,619,000 on 20 and KRW 107,566,000 on 21. Calculating the increase over the two days from 19 to 21 gives a gain of approximately 12.9%.
Author's calculation:
(KRW 107,566,000 ÷ KRW 95,246,000 - 1) × 100 = approximately 12.9%
The pace of the rally moderated somewhat on 22. At 7:50 PM, the price stood at KRW 105,168,000, with an intraday trading range of approximately KRW 104,070,000 to KRW 108,560,000. Although the price had fallen below the previous day's close, it had not slipped back under KRW 100,000,000.
In other words, this move was more than a brief intraday touch of KRW 100,000,000. Instead, the overall won-denominated trading range appears to have shifted above KRW 100,000,000 since 20. However, with prices still fluctuating by several million won within a single day, it is too early to conclude that KRW 100,000,000 has become a new price floor.
How Quickly Did the Dollar Price Move From the USD 60,000 Range to the USD 70,000 Range?
The global market experienced a similarly significant shift in price levels during the same period. In mid-August, Bitcoin was trading around USD 63,000, but it moved back above USD 70,000 on 20 and briefly exceeded USD 79,000 on 21.
On August 20, Bitcoin was confirmed to be trading at approximately USD 71,505, recovering above USD 70,000 for the first time since June. It subsequently climbed to around 78000–USD 79,000 on 21 before partially retreating to the 76000–USD 77,000 range on 22.
Coinbase price data also indicates that the weekly gain exceeded 20% compared with the price of approximately USD 62,945 a week earlier. Given how rapidly prices rose over just a few days, determining whether Bitcoin has established itself in the USD 70,000 range requires looking not only at its daily percentage gains but also at whether those price levels hold over the following several days.
Comparing won-denominated and dollar-denominated prices makes the scale of this rebound even clearer. In South Korea, Bitcoin moved from the low KRW 90,000,000 range into the KRW 100,000,000 range, while internationally it rose from the mid-USD 60,000 range to the upper USD 70,000 range.
What Factors Were Moving Together During This Rebound?
It is difficult to explain this rally through a single event. Several developments overlapped in the market, including changes related to U.S. long-term Treasury buybacks, movements in long-term interest rates, short-position liquidations, and expectations for a clearer U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets.
In its August quarterly financing plan, the U.S. Treasury announced plans for liquidity-support buybacks of up to USD 38,000,000,000 during the quarter, targeting off-the-run Treasury securities, along with short-term cash-management buybacks of up to USD 25,000,000,000. Subsequently, news of an expansion in long-term Treasury buybacks reached the market, long-term Treasury yields declined, and sentiment toward risk assets shifted.
A Treasury buyback is a process in which the government repurchases some of its outstanding Treasury securities. According to the U.S. Treasury's official explanation, its objectives include supporting Treasury market liquidity and managing cash balances. It would therefore be inappropriate to treat these operations as exactly equivalent to a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut or quantitative easing.
The price increase itself also contributed to further gains. Traders holding short positions that bet on a Bitcoin decline may be forced to close those positions to limit losses when prices rise sharply against their expectations. The resulting purchases to close those positions can amplify the rally, a phenomenon known as a short squeeze.
Market analysts also reported that short-position liquidations continued after the rally began, following several weeks of relatively narrow price movements. Rather than interpreting the entire sharp increase over several days as fresh long-term buying demand, it is important to distinguish how much of the move may have resulted from the liquidation of existing bearish positions.
Discussions surrounding U.S. cryptocurrency legislation were another factor reflected in market sentiment. U.S. President Donald Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act during a meeting with representatives of the digital asset industry. However, because the legislation remains under discussion, expectations surrounding the policy must be distinguished from its actual enactment and implementation.
Where Did the USD 100,000 Forecast Come From, and How Much Further Must Bitcoin Rise?
The recently resurfacing USD 100,000 Bitcoin forecast is a year-end 2026 projection made by Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered. The most important distinction is that this is neither a newly confirmed price nor a market-wide consensus, but rather a forecast from a researcher at a particular financial institution.
Kendrick maintained his year-end USD 100,000 forecast even when Bitcoin fell to around USD 64,000 in June. After the sharp rebound in August, he went further, suggesting that the existing USD 100,000 target might actually be too low.
However, suggesting that a price target could be higher and actually reaching that price are entirely different matters.
Using the recently observed price of approximately USD 76,844, the additional increase required to reach USD 100,000 can be calculated as follows.
Author's calculation:
(USD 100,000 ÷ USD 76,844 - 1) × 100 = approximately 30.1%
In absolute price terms, Bitcoin would need to rise by approximately USD 23,156 more.
Simply seeing Bitcoin break above USD 70,000 may make USD 100,000 feel close, but the percentage calculation shows that approximately 30% still remains. The fact that Bitcoin gained more than 20% over the past week does not guarantee that it will continue rising at the same pace.
Moreover, Standard Chartered's USD 100,000 forecast is not a figure that first appeared this year. It was already being maintained during the sharp price decline in June. Rather than being a newly created forecast prompted by this rebound, it is more accurate to say that an existing forecast has returned to the market's attention.
Why KRW 100,000,000 in Won and USD 100,000 in Dollars Should Not Be Treated as Equivalent Benchmarks
One of the most confusing points for South Korean investors is that Bitcoin at KRW 100,000,000 and Bitcoin at USD 100,000 are not corresponding price levels.
Bitcoin's domestic price in Korean won reflects its international U.S. dollar price, the KRW/USD exchange rate, and differences in supply and demand on South Korean exchanges. Consequently, even if Bitcoin's dollar price remains unchanged internationally, its domestic price can change when the won-dollar exchange rate moves.
The price gap between South Korean and international exchanges is not constant either. When the difference between domestic and overseas prices, commonly called the kimchi premium, widens or narrows, Bitcoin's percentage gains in dollars and won can diverge.
That is why it is difficult to state a fixed amount for exactly how much Bitcoin would cost in South Korea if it reached USD 100,000. The KRW/USD exchange rate and the price difference between domestic and international markets at that time would both need to be known.
In this rebound, Bitcoin has already surpassed KRW 100,000,000 in won terms, but it remains a considerable distance from USD 100,000 in dollar terms. South Korean investors can get a clearer picture of Bitcoin's current position by checking BTC/USD and the won-dollar exchange rate alongside the BTC/KRW price, rather than focusing on the BTC/KRW figure alone.
Which Figures Matter More Than KRW 100,000,000 Going Forward?
Breaking back above KRW 100,000,000 is an important psychological shift, but it is difficult to judge Bitcoin's future direction using that level alone. Both market structure and policy-related factors moved alongside prices during this rally.
The first thing to watch is whether Bitcoin can maintain prices in the USD 70,000 range for several days or longer. If prices remain stable after the short squeeze ends, that would provide evidence of a market trend different from a rally driven solely by rapid position liquidations.
The second factor is actual capital flows, including those into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Standard Chartered has also recently cited a recovery in spot ETF inflows as one of the reasons supporting its bullish outlook. Market interpretations could differ depending on whether prices rise ahead of weakening capital flows or whether prices and inflows continue to strengthen together.
The third factor is U.S. long-term Treasury yields and movements in the dollar. Because changes in the long-term Treasury market were cited as an important factor during this rebound, it would be difficult to assume that the same favorable conditions will persist if yields rise sharply again or the dollar strengthens.
Finally, USD 100,000 should be viewed as a forecast, not the next guaranteed price level. Moving from the USD 76,000 range to USD 100,000 would require an additional gain of approximately 30%, and Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset capable of moving several percent in a single day. The recovery above KRW 100,000,000 represents a clear price change, but it does not, by itself, guarantee that Bitcoin will reach USD 100,000 by year-end.
※ This article is provided for informational purposes to help readers understand market trends and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy any particular security or asset. Readers are responsible for their own final investment decisions and the associated risks.
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